POSITIVE SIGNS OF VIETNAM'S IMPORT-EXPORT ACTIVITIES IN 2023

In July 2023, the total import-export value of goods was estimated at 57.21 billion USD, an increase of 2.5% compared to the previous month, with the trade surplus continuing to rise. The trade balance for the first 7 months of 2023 was estimated to show a trade surplus of 15.23 billion USD – a record high for the trade balance in the first 7 months to date. These figures indicate that the activity continues to show positive signs.

For the first 7 months of 2023, the total import-export value of goods reached 374.23 billion USD, a decrease of 13.9% compared to the same period last year, with exports down by 10.6% and imports down by 17.1%.

Import - Export of goods in the first 7 months of 2023

Positive signs in goods exports in july

With the positive and coordinated measures from various ministries and sectors to overcome difficulties, support domestic production, boost trade promotion, and expand export markets, the import-export activities in July showed positive signals, with a total estimated import-export turnover of 57.21 billion USD, an increase of 2.5% compared to the previous month.

Due to the global market's challenges since the beginning of the year, the total import-export turnover in July still decreased by 6.7% compared to the same period last year. However, this decline has narrowed compared to previous months, with April down 19.4%, May down 15.2%, and June down 14.5%. For the first seven months of 2023, the total import-export turnover is estimated at 374.23 billion USD, down 13.9% compared to the same period last year.

Regarding exports, in July, the export activities continued to show positive signs, increasing by 0.8% compared to the previous month, reaching an estimated 29.68 billion USD, the second-highest export turnover since the beginning of the year (just below the March 2023 export turnover, which reached 29.68 billion USD). Thus, the export turnover continues to show a month-over-month increase (after a decline in April 2023).

In this, the domestic sector achieved 7.76 billion USD, down 1.8%, while the foreign-invested sector (including crude oil) reached 21.92 billion USD, up 1.7%. Compared to the same period last year, the export turnover of goods in July decreased by 3.5%, with the domestic sector decreasing by 4.2% and the foreign-invested sector (including crude oil) decreasing by 3.2%.

Another positive signal is the main driver for the growth of export activities in July coming from the processed industrial goods sector, with a strong increase in the export turnover of several key industrial products.

In July 2023, the export of rubber products increased the most by 63.5%; export turnover of vehicles and parts reached 1.4 billion USD, up 42.3%; export turnover of electronics, computers, and components increased by 32% compared to the same period last year, reaching 5.2 billion USD. This is the largest export product. Although the export turnover of electronics, computers, and components has not seen a strong increase, the turnover for the first seven months of 2023 is nearly the same as that of the same period in 2022, with a decrease of only 3%, indicating a recovery in exports of this product. Additionally, exports of clinker and cement increased by 26.8%; textile fibers increased by 21.6%; bags, wallets, suitcases, hats, and umbrellas increased by 7.4%; and electric wires and cables increased by 3.5%.

In addition, the export turnover of some fuel and mineral products in July 2023 increased compared to the previous month: ore and other minerals increased by 195.8%; crude oil increased by 7.2%.

Several items in the agricultural and seafood groups continued to increase in July 2023 compared to the same period last year: vegetables and fruits increased by 122.5%; coffee increased by 37.4%; cashew nuts increased by 15%; rice increased by 14.4%; cassava and cassava products increased by 9.8%; and rubber increased by 3.1%.

For the first seven months of 2023, the estimated export turnover of goods reached 194.73 billion USD, down 10.6% compared to the same period last year. Of this, the domestic sector achieved 51.5 billion USD, down 10.2%, accounting for 26.4% of total export turnover; the foreign-invested sector (including crude oil) reached 143.23 billion USD, down 10.8%, accounting for 73.6%.

In the first seven months of 2023, there were 30 items with export turnover exceeding 1 billion USD, accounting for 91.6% of total export turnover (including 5 items with exports over 10 billion USD, accounting for 57.6%).

The value of some export items in the first 7 months of 2023

Regarding the export item structure in the first 7 months of 2023, the fuel and mineral group is estimated at 2.53 billion USD, accounting for 1.3%; the processed industrial goods group is estimated at 171.5 billion USD, accounting for 88.1%; the agricultural and forestry products group is estimated at 15.75 billion USD, accounting for 8.1%, with a positive growth of 7.7% compared to the same period last year; the fisheries products group is estimated at 4.95 billion USD, accounting for 2.5%.

For imports, the decline in global demand has significantly impacted the import value of raw materials for production orders of our exports. However, thanks to positive signals in industrial production and exports in July, the import value in July 2023 is estimated at 27.53 billion USD, up 4.4% compared to the previous month.

In July 2023, over 20 items saw an increase compared to June 2023, with many items experiencing significant growth, such as: Liquefied natural gas, which rose the most by 147.4%; animal feed and additives increased by 52.4%; crude oil rose by 49.3%; cashew nuts increased by 47.2%; coal increased by 42.6%; pharmaceutical products rose by 21.9%; household electrical goods and components increased by 19.9%; vegetables and fruits increased by 12.6%.

However, due to the decline since the beginning of the year, in the first 7 months of 2023, the total import value is estimated at 179.5 billion USD, down 17.1% compared to the same period last year. Of this, the domestic economic sector reached 64.1 billion USD, down 16.1%, and the foreign-invested sector reached 115.4 billion USD, down 17.7%. In the first 7 months of 2023, 35 imported items achieved a value of over 1 billion USD, accounting for 88.8% of total import value (with 2 items exceeding 10 billion USD, accounting for 37.9%).

The import value of some items in the first 7 months of 2023

Regarding the structure of imported goods in the first 7 months of 2023, raw materials for production are estimated to reach 168.3 billion USD, accounting for 93.8%, with machinery, equipment, and accessories accounting for 43.9%, and raw materials and energy materials accounting for 49.9%. Consumer goods are estimated at 11.2 billion USD, accounting for 6.2%.

Due to imports decreasing more sharply than exports, Vietnam's trade balance in July continues to record a trade surplus of about 2.15 billion USD, bringing the total trade surplus in the first 7 months of 2023 to 15.23 billion USD, more than 11 times higher than the surplus of the same period last year (1.34 billion USD surplus). Of this, the domestic economic sector recorded a trade deficit of 12.58 billion USD, while the foreign-invested sector (including crude oil) had a trade surplus of 27.81 billion USD.

Enhancing negotiations, signing agreements, commitments, and trade links – a crucial solution to boost export growth in the last months of the year.

The decline in exports and imports in recent months is due to the continued challenges in the global socio-economic situation. Although inflation has cooled down, most major economies are experiencing low growth due to decreased aggregate demand, tight monetary policies, the ongoing military conflict between Russia and Ukraine, increasing geopolitical instability, food security issues, and climate change. Moreover, major economies, which are key export partners of Vietnam such as the US and the EU, have reduced their spending on regular and luxury products, leading to a drop in order volumes.

Additionally, China's reopening has intensified competition with Vietnam's similar export products. Meanwhile, Vietnamese businesses are still facing challenges due to a decline in foreign orders, weak domestic purchasing power, high input costs, and difficulties in accessing credit.

Therefore, in the coming period, ministries and sectors need to make efforts to accelerate negotiations, sign new agreements, commitments, and trade links, including completing the implementation of the FTA with Israel and signing FTAs and trade agreements with other potential partners (UAE, MERCOSUR...) to diversify markets, products, and supply chains. It's also necessary to strengthen domestic production and consumption, particularly for products with domestic raw materials, to limit imports and ensure supply. Regularly review and promptly resolve difficulties and obstacles; effectively support businesses facing capital shortages, rising input material costs, and difficulties in product consumption. Ensure energy and electricity for production and consumption during the peak hot season. Timely solutions should be provided for sectors negatively affected by the decrease in global market demand, such as footwear, textiles, and wood production and processing.

At the same time, continue to enhance support for businesses to take advantage of commitments in FTAs, particularly CPTPP, EVFTA, and UKVFTA agreements, to boost exports. This can be done through promoting knowledge about origin rules, issuing certificates of origin, and providing guidance on how to leverage opportunities from these agreements. Work with the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development to negotiate with China to open up more export markets for other Vietnamese fruits and vegetables, such as green-skinned pomelo, fresh coconut, avocado, pineapple, star apple, lemon, and melon. Improve the efficiency and regulate the customs clearance speed of export and import goods at the Vietnam-China border gate area, especially for seasonal agricultural and seafood products; quickly transition to official exports. Strengthen early warnings about trade defense lawsuits, guide businesses on how to handle these lawsuits, and provide timely information to businesses and associations about new market information, demands, and regulations.

(Source: General Statistics Office)